I have always thought that my coffee deal was the most legitimate of
all my trades in commodities. I considered it more of an investment
than a speculation. I was in it over a year. If there was any gambling
it was done by the patriotic roasters with German names and ancestry.
They had coffee in Brazil and they sold it to me in New York. The Price
Fixing Committee fixed the price of the only commodity that had not
advanced. They protected the public against profiteering before it
started, but not against the inevitable higher prices that followed.
Not only that, but even when green coffee hung around nine cents a
pound, roasted coffee went up with everything else. It was only the
roasters who benefited. If the price of green coffee had gone up two or
three cents a pound it would have meant several millions for me. And it
wouldn’t have cost the public as much as the later advance did.
Post-mortems in speculation are a waste of time. They get you nowhere.
But this particular deal has a certain educational value. It was as
pretty as any I ever went into. The rise was so sure, so logical,
that I figured that I simply couldn’t help making several millions of
dollars. But I didn’t.
On two other occasions I have suffered from the action of exchange
committees making rulings that changed trading rules without warning.
But in those cases my own position, while technically right, was not
quite so sound commercially as in my coffee trade. You cannot be dead
sure of anything in a speculative operation. It was the experience I
have just told you that made me add the unexpectable to the unexpected
in my list of hazards.
After the coffee episode I was so successful in other commodities
and on the short side of the stock market, that I began to suffer
from silly gossip. The professionals in Wall Street and the
newspaper writers got the habit of blaming me and my alleged raids
for the inevitable breaks in prices. At times my selling was called
unpatriotic--whether I was really selling or not. The reason for
exaggerating the magnitude and the effect of my operations, I suppose,
was the need to satisfy the public’s insatiable demand for reasons for
each and every price movement.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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