The rise, illogical and ill-timed though it was, had developed some
public following and this doubtless encouraged the insiders to pursue
their unwise tactics. Therefore I sold more stock. The insiders ceased
their folly. So I tested the market again and again, in accordance with
my trading methods, until finally I was short 30,000 shares of the
stock of the Tropical Trading Company. By then the price was 133.
I had been warned that the TT insiders knew the exact whereabouts of
every stock certificate in the Street and the precise dimensions and
identity of the short interest as well as other facts of tactical
importance. They were able men and shrewd traders. Altogether it was
a dangerous combination to go up against. But facts are facts and the
strongest of all allies are conditions.
Of course, on the way down from 153 to 133 the short interest had grown
and the public that buys on reactions began to argue as usual: That
stock had been considered a good purchase at 153 and higher. Now 20
points lower, it was necessarily a much better purchase. Same stock;
same dividend rate; same officers; same business. Great bargain!
The public’s purchases reduced the floating supply and the insiders,
knowing that a lot of room traders were short, thought the time
propitious for a squeezing. The price was duly run up to 150. I daresay
there was plenty of covering but I stayed pat. Why shouldn’t I? The
insiders might know that a short line of 30,000 shares had not been
taken in but why should that frighten me? The reasons that had impelled
me to begin selling at 153 and keep at it on the way down to 133, not
only still existed but were stronger than ever. The insiders might
desire to force me to cover but they adduced no convincing arguments.
Fundamental conditions were fighting for me. It was not difficult to
be both fearless and patient. A speculator must have faith in himself
and in his judgment. The late Dickson G. Watts, ex-President of the
New York Cotton Exchange and famous author of “Speculation as a Fine
Art,” says that courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on
the decision of his mind. With me, I cannot fear to be wrong because
I never think I am wrong until I am proven wrong. In fact, I am
uncomfortable unless I am capitalising my experience. The course of
the market at a given time does not necessarily prove me wrong. It is
the character of the advance--or of the decline--that determines for me
the correctness or the fallacy of my market position. I can only rise
by knowledge. If I fall it must be by my own blunders.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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