This matter of tape reading is not so complicated as it appears. Of
course you need experience. But it is even more important to keep
certain fundamentals in mind. To read the tape is not to have your
fortune told. The tape does not tell you how much you will surely be
worth next Thursday at 1:35 P.M. The object of reading the tape is to
ascertain, first, how and, next, when to trade--that is, whether it is
wiser to buy than to sell. It works exactly the same for stocks as for
cotton or wheat or corn or oats.
You watch the market--that is, the course of prices as recorded by the
tape--with one object: to determine the direction--that is, the price
tendency. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the
resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will
say that _prices, like everything else, move along the line of least
resistance_. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will
go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and
vice versa.
Nobody should be puzzled as to whether a market is a bull market or a
bear market after it fairly starts. The trend is evident to a man who
has an open mind and reasonably clear sight, for it is never wise for a
speculator to fit his facts to his theories. Such a man will, or ought
to, know whether it is a bull or a bear market, and if he knows that he
knows whether to buy or to sell. It is therefore at the very inception
of the movement that a man needs to know whether to buy or to sell.
Let us say, for example, that the market, as it usually does in those
between-swings times, fluctuates within a range of ten points; up to
130 and down to 120. It may look very weak at the bottom; or, on the
way up, after a rise of eight or ten points, it may look as strong as
anything. A man ought not to be led into trading by tokens. _He should
wait until the tape tells him that the time is ripe. As a matter of
fact, millions upon millions of dollars have been lost by men who
bought stocks because they looked cheap or sold them because they
looked dear. The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to
secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to
profit by either a rise or a fall in the price of whatever he may be
speculating in. Therefore the thing to determine is the speculative
line of least resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should
wait for is the moment when that line defines itself, because that is
his signal to get busy._
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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