Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
Washington, on its part, has accused the Russian firm, Aviaconversiya,
of helping Iraqi forces to jam global positioning system (GPS) signals.
Other firms - including anti-tank Kornet missile manufacturer, KBP Tula
- have also been fingered for supplying Iraq with sensitive military
technologies.
These allegations were vehemently denied by President Vladimir Putin in
a phone call to Bush - and ridiculed by the companies ostensibly
involved. Russia exported c. $5 billion of military hardware and
another $2.6 billion in nuclear equipment and expertise last year,
mostly to India and China - triple the 1994 figure.
Russia and the United States have continually exchanged barbs over the
sale of fission technology to Iran. In retaliation, Atomic Energy
Minister, Alexander Rumyantsev, exposed an Anglo-German-Dutch deal with
the Iranians, which, he said, included the sale of uranium enrichment
centrifuges.
Is Putin reviving the Cold War to regain his nationalist credentials,
tarnished by the positioning, unopposed, of American troops in central
Asia, the unilateral American withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic
Missile (ABM) treaty and the expansion of NATO and the European Union
to Russia's borders?
Or, dependent as it is on energy exports, is Russia opposed to the war
because it fears an American monopoly on the second largest known
reserves of crude? Russia announced on Thursday that it would insist on
honoring all prewar contracts signed between Iraq and Russian oil
companies and worth of billions of dollars - and on the repayment of
$8-9 billion in Iraqi overdue debt to Russia.
According to Rosbalt, every drop of $1 in oil prices translates into
annual losses to the Russian treasury of $2 billion. Aggregate
corporate profits rose in January by one fifth year on year, mostly on
the strength of surging crude quotes. The Economist Intelligence Unit
expects this year's GDP to grow by 3.8 percent. Foreign exchange
reserves are stable at $54 billion.
The threat to Russia's prominence and market share is not imminent.
Iraqi oil is unlikely to hit world markets in the next few years, as
Iraq's dilapidated and outdated infrastructure is rebuilt. Moreover,
Russian oil is cheap compared to the North Sea or Alaskan varieties and
thus constitutes an attractive investment opportunity as the recent
takeover of Tyumen Oil by British Petroleum proves. Still, the
long-term risk of being unseated by a reconstructed Iraq as the second
largest oil producer in the world is tangible.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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