Science in Short ChaptersWilliams, W. Mattieu (William Mattieu)
Science
Science in Short Chapters
Williams, W. Mattieu (William Mattieu)
Science
If I am right in the above estimates of working possibilities, our coal
resources may be increased by about forty thousand millions of tons
beyond the estimate of the Commissioners. To obtain such an additional
quantity will certainly be worth an effort, and unless we suffer a far
worse calamity than the loss of all our minerals, viz., a deterioration
of British energy, the effort will assuredly be made.
I have said repeatedly that it is not physical difficulties but market
value that will determine the limits of our coal-mining. This, like
all other values, is of course determined by the relation between
demand and supply. Fuel being one of the absolute necessaries of life,
the demand for it must continue so long as the conditions of human
existence remain as at present, and the outer limits of the possible
value of coal will be determined by that of the next cheapest kind of
fuel which is capable of superseding it.
We begin by working the best and most accessible seams, and while those
remain in abundance the average value of coal will be determined by the
cost of producing it under these easy conditions. Directly these most
accessible seams cease to supply the whole demand, the market value
rises until it becomes sufficient to cover the cost of working the less
accessible; and the average value will be regulated not by the cost of
working what remains of the first or easy mines, but by that of working
the most difficult that must be worked in order to meet the demand.
This is a simple case falling under the well-established economic law,
that the natural or cost value of any commodity is determined by the
cost value of the most costly portion of it. Thus, the only condition
under which we can proceed to sink deeper and deeper, is a demand of
sufficient energy to keep pace with the continually increasing cost
of production. This condition can only be fulfilled when there is no
competing source of cheaper production which is adequate to supply the
demand.
The question then resolves itself into this: Is any source of supply
likely to intervene that will prevent the value of coal from rising
sufficiently to cover the cost of working the coal seams of 4000 feet
and greater depth? Without entering upon the question of peat and
wood fuel, both of which will for some uses undoubtedly come into
competition with British coal as it rises in value, I believe that
there are sound reasons for concluding that our London fireplaces,
and those of other towns situated on the sea-coast and the banks of
navigable rivers, will be supplied with transatlantic coal long before
we reach the Commissioner’s limit of 4000 feet. The highest prices of
last winter, if steadily maintained, would be sufficient to bring about
this important change. Temporary upward jerks of the price of coal have
very little immediate effect upon supply, as the surveying, conveyance,
boring, sinking, and fully opening of a new coal estate is a work of
some years.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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