My answer met with violent opposition, everyone assuring me that Alexander III. must meet his father’s fate. At that time nearly all revolutionists had still a firm belief in the indestructible power of the _Naròdnaia Vòlya_, and saw in terrorism the only practicable means of fighting Russian absolutism. To me, on the contrary, things showed themselves in quite a different light. I had taken part in the revolutionary organisation when the terrorist idea was in its infancy, had witnessed its development until finally it reigned alone and absorbed all the fighting energy of the party, had known personally Terrorists both great and small, and I had now come to the conclusion that the _Naròdnaia Vòlya_ had outlived its time. The tide of feeling that had fostered the growth of this party had reached its height in 1881; while after, and in consequence of, the assassination of Alexander II. it had ebbed rapidly away. As I have explained before, all the leading Terrorists were then removed from the sphere of action, and the younger ones who tried to replace them had no chance of proving and tempering their own powers. Both in Russia and abroad I had seen how the earlier enthusiasm had given way to a fatal scepticism; men had lost faith, even though many would not have allowed that it was so. It was clear to me that a reaction had set in, to last for many years. When I now gave expression to these views, M. asked suddenly— “Will you back that opinion?” “What does that mean?” I asked. “Well, we simply mean by that, will you take a bet on it? I declare that the Tsar will be killed; you maintain the contrary. I offer you a wager that the Tsar will be killed by the revolutionists within a certain time.” “Very well, I accept.” “Shall we say five years—till December 15th, 1890?” “All right; what is the stake?”