In detailed tactical estimates the commander requires an exhaustive
comprehension of the fighting capabilities of his own and the enemy
armed forces, because his selection of physical objectives and his use
of relative position are affected by such considerations. This is
manifestly true for studied tactical estimates made in advance to meet
contingencies, but its import is not always fully understood in its
bearing on the unfolding situation after the battle begins. At that
time, the most precise knowledge is called for, under the then rapidly
changing conditions. (Chapter IX.)
In the Form treated herein, those matters particularly applicable to
broad estimates are included under "general factors". These are
followed by the factors more directly applicable to the armed forces.
(a) General Factors. (i) Political Factors. The prosecution of the war
is directly influenced by such internal conditions as the strength of
the national government and its capacity for unified effort, the
moulding and maintaining of a firm public opinion in support of war
aims, the neutralization of subversive propaganda, and the degree to
which the government can make available necessary resources, both
domestic and foreign.
External relations modify the conduct of war, always affecting broad
estimates of the employment of national forces. The wartime factors
which influence these relations include the effect of the clash
between foreign opinion and national policy, the national bias of
interested neutrals and of unneutral non-belligerent governments, and
the normal attitude of such neutrals and non-belligerents toward each
belligerent. The diplomatic skill of the opposing governments and the
ability of propaganda to sway public opinion abroad may well determine
the manner in which neutrality will be enforced.
Alliances, including those that are known and those that are secret,
directly influence an estimate. When a war of any importance breaks
out in any part of the world, all States are affected to some degree.
One may have an alliance which, though not requiring active
participation in the war, will call for collaboration with the efforts
of a belligerent. Another alliance may require active participation,
while still another State may attempt to maintain strict neutrality.
Every State remaining at peace will thus be in a status ranging from
that of a non-belligerent, with more or less close ties to one of the
contestants, to a position of strict impartiality. The estimate of the
international situation becomes more complex as the magnitude of the
war increases. A correct appreciation of the status of each State
concerned is of first importance in any broad estimate of the conduct
of war.
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