While only the physical elements of fighting strength are susceptible
of quantitative comparison, failure to take account of mental and
moral factors may involve serious error. Nevertheless, in many
situations, such factors remain relatively indeterminate until
subjected to test. Inferences may be drawn, and deductions made, on a
basis of peace-time observation and of historical precedent. In these,
racial and national characteristics may figure prominently. History,
however, has taught that, in a conflict between modern industrial and
military nations, it is unwise to entertain any assumption other than
that of moral equality until such time as the conflict has
demonstrated the existence of a difference, and the degree thereof, or
unless prior experience, observation, and acquaintance unquestionably
warrant otherwise.
(iv) Information and counter-information measures. Operations of war
are tremendously affected by the information which each belligerent
possesses of the others. It is therefore of vital importance to weigh
the efficiency of the belligerents in the employment of means of
obtaining, denying, and utilizing information.
There may appropriately be considered present, probable, or possible
use or non-use of indirect methods such as: study of press, captured
documents, and material; reports from other friendly units;
interrogation of prisoners of war, deserters, inhabitants, and escaped
or exchanged prisoners; radio direction-finding; efficiency of
cryptography; interception of enemy radio, telegraph, telephone, and
mail communications; espionage; censorship; propaganda; efficiency of
communications systems, ashore and afloat, which include all means of
interchange of thought. In this connection it will be recalled that
information, however accurate and appropriate, is useless if it cannot
be conveyed in time.
The direct methods of obtaining information are military operations
intended for that purpose, such as observation, reconnaissance,
scouting, trailing.
Counter-information measures are no less important than those
pertaining to collection of information. Such measures include all
provisions for secrecy, such as censorship, counter-espionage,
cryptography, control of own communications, security of documents,
camouflage, and applicable tactical operations.
(b) Factors More Directly Applicable to Armed Forces, (i) Vessels,
including aircraft. The numbers and characteristics, of the ships and
aircraft of the various nations of the world are known with less and
less accuracy from the time when war becomes a probability. The
information available is given intense and comparative scrutiny, under
the specific headings of the factors of the Estimate Form as later
enumerated.
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