(1) Summary of the Enemy's Situation.
Frequently it may happen that the enemy does not have certain
significant information. The fact of such lack of information may have
been established by the conclusions drawn as to relative fighting
strength (Section I-B). If this be the case, notation of the fact is
made at this point in the commander's estimate of the enemy's
situation. If doubt exists as to the extent and accuracy of the
enemy's information, it will be desirable to credit the enemy with any
knowledge which it would be dangerous for the commander to conclude
was not available to his opponent.
In summarizing the enemy's situation, the commander may brief the
procedure by indicating those significant features of his own
situation, as summarized in Section I-A and as particularized in
Section I-B, which he does not consider are known to the enemy. The
commander will also indicate here any items of important information
as to which he has only a suggestion or an inkling, but which he
considers may be known in greater detail to the enemy.
(2) Analysis of the Effect Desired by the Enemy.
It may appear on first thought that the best basis for determining the
pertinent enemy courses of action is to make a deduction of the
enemy's mission. Sometimes, undoubtedly, this is the case. However, it
is not always possible to deduce the enemy's mission correctly. If the
deduction is incorrect the remainder of the estimate will be on an
unsound basis. If, as may happen, the enemy's plan has been captured,
or if, by some other method, conclusive information has been
obtained, it may be possible to state the enemy's mission. Even then,
however, the enemy's mission may sometimes be changed. It is thus
evident that the commander, by restricting his thought, may frequently
fail to consider all of the enemy capabilities which may materially
influence his own course of action.
With this precaution in mind, the commander, at this point in his
Estimate, proceeds to analyze the effect desired by the enemy. The
commander intends to use his deductions, if such use appears to be
sound, to narrow the field of consideration as to enemy courses of
action. However, he reminds himself that such restriction will be
dangerous unless it is established on sound grounds.
The first mental act toward determining the effect desired by the
enemy is to form a reasoned opinion as to the situation which the
enemy wishes to maintain or to create. The maintenance or creation of
this situation, existent or to be brought about, is an enemy
objective.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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