The procedure involved in formulating such a detailed plan of action
has been described previously in general terms (Chapter V). The method
of determining the salient features of the operations required has
also been discussed (in Section III of Chapter IV). Therefore, these
matters are not repeated at this point.
The problems distinctive of this procedure (the second step, as
described in Chapter V) are subsidiary problems, in the sense that the
incentive for their solution arises by reason of a decision already
made by the commander, i.e., the basic Decision, and because they are
problems which the commander recognizes are to be solved by himself
and not by his subordinates.
Assumptions. The commander's plan has been derived from an estimate of
the situation based on the best information available to him. Complete
and accurate information is frequently lacking; hence, many military
plans consider contingencies which, to make a plan possible, have been
accepted in the estimate as assumptions.
The word assumption, when used to denote a basis for a plan, signifies
"the taking of something for granted". It does not mean a conjecture,
guess, or probability. The proposed action, resulting from a decision
made under an assumption, is designed to be taken only upon the
disclosure of the truth of the assumption. The fact that the
assumption upon which the plan is based may prove false indicates the
advisability of developing several plans based upon various sets of
assumptions.
It would be erroneous to believe that all contingencies can be
foreseen, and to be content with a particular set of plans, all of
which may prove to be wrong. It is not to be expected that a plan
based upon assumptions will, in all respects, be suitable for use in
an actual situation. For example, it will seldom occur that an
elaborate Battle Plan, based upon assumptions as to the various types,
dispositions, and strengths of forces present, the weather conditions,
and the intent of the enemy, can be used without changes.
On the other hand, a plan for the sortie of a fleet from a harbor
under assumptions that high visibility exists, that airplanes can
operate, and that hostile submarines will be the only force in
opposition, may frequently be found entirely applicable to the actual
situation, or so nearly so as to require only slight modification. It
is possible so to standardize such plans that only minor variables
need be indicated when the plan is to be used.
The visualization of valid and useful assumptions frequently makes the
most serious demands on professional knowledge and judgment.
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