The application of the estimate procedure to the second step may be
tested, aside from the logic of the theory involved, by careful
analysis of examples. For instance, if the basic Decision was to
determine the location of enemy forces in the area ABCD, this becomes
the basis for a plan embodying the best method of determining the
location of such enemy forces (an operation, or a series of
operations). One method of procedure (course of action) to achieve
this objective may be to search the area by aircraft; another may
involve a search by cruisers; another by destroyers; another by
submarines; etc. The operation or operations finally determined upon
may be any one of these, or a combination of two or more of them,
perhaps of all of them. The fundamental procedure leading to this
conclusion is identical with that of the basic estimate.
There are a number of possible variations of the fundamental mental
processes applicable to the second step, according to the facility and
the preference of the commander. Practice seems to develop such
facility (see also page 94) that entire plans, each properly
integrated with respect to physical objectives, relative positions,
apportionment of fighting strength, and freedom of action, may be
visualized separately from each other.
At the other extreme, the elementary procedure is to utilize these
salient features of such a plan, successively, to suggest detailed
operations. The features after the first are then used either to adapt
or to complete the operations suggested by preceding features, or to
suggest new operations. This elementary procedure, being the simpler
and more methodical of the two, is the one explained hereafter
(Chapter VII).
However, there are various possibilities as to procedures intermediate
between these extremes. One such procedure would visualize operations
primarily on the basis of correct physical objectives, adapting and
completing such operations by reference to the other features; the
procedure would then utilize relative positions, etc., to suggest
additional operations, which in turn may be similarly adapted or
completed. The commander is of course at liberty to use the procedure
best suited to his own working methods and to the particular
situation; naturally, he bears full responsibility for any errors due
to a faulty choice of procedure.
From the standpoint of the exercise of mental power in the solution of
military problems, the second step may be taken to include the
assembly of the commander's conclusions in the form of directives. The
third step begins, however (page 107), when the commander forms the
intent of immediately promulgating such directives.
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