There being, therefore so many elements entering into the question of influence upon this group of securities, it is rather venturesome to presume any prediction for their future, for fear such prediction may prove unfounded, as have many former guesses on their probable rise and fall. The immediate outlook for 1917 is at present somewhat baffling, aside from the economic tendencies, charted in this chapter, but there may be a change for improvement at any time in the motor car industry, especially if our government should place large orders for cars and supplies in the event of war, or the foreign trade should take on large quantities for the remainder of the year. It must be remembered that the supply of parts for cars is now, and will be more and more, an extensive business of the motor car industry. One prominent New York newspaper which censors very carefully its advertising is very cautious in handling offerings on motor stocks. It might be safe to assume that motor stocks in well managed companies making popular cars will be as secure an investment for reasonable earnings on products as other industrials for some years to come and possibly indefinitely. The future of automobile accessories is possibly not subject to fluctuations in the same degree, nor as apt to reach the saturation point as might be the development in the automobile industry, for the reason that with the increase in the number of cars in use, the purchase of many accessories will be made by car owners, even though the manufacturers should not continue to buy an increasing, or even equal, volume. It is natural to expect that the earnings on and the price of automobile accessory stocks should therefore remain firm, if conditions of trade or competition do not unduly affect them. The future of the tire industry and stocks seems reasonably secure, as unless some satisfactory substitutes for rubber tires are discovered, apparently an increasing number of tires for replacements, if not new cars, should be demanded each year. The present earnings of the tire companies are very large and should continue favorable. It must be remembered that the cost of material and labor are as important considerations to this class of manufacturers as to all industrials, and that their undue rise in cost might affect the industry more or less temporarily. But as they have come to be classed as necessities, the prices would naturally adjust themselves to the cost of manufacture. With all popular cars sold far in excess of their capacity, barring the interference or lack of transportation, labor friction, or other unexpected or disturbing elements, it is safe to assume that 1917 should be a record year in the motor, motor accessory and tire industries, and that their earnings should be reflected in the intrinsic and probably the market values of their securities. CHAPTER VII. PASSENGER AUTOMOBILES MANUFACTURED IN THE UNITED STATES.