Studies in the History and Method of Science, vol. 1 (of 2)
Religion
Studies in the History and Method of Science, vol. 1 (of 2)
Medicine -- History; Science -- History
The ‘working’ of hypotheses is by no means simple and unambiguous.
It admits of infinite gradations in amount and kind, and the ‘truth’
which is implicated in ‘working’ is nothing essentially but an index
of its logical value, and may vary in quantity between values which
cannot be _psychologically_ discriminated from zero and from 100% or
1 (= ‘absolute’ certainty). It is crude, therefore, to confront a
scientific hypothesis with the rigid alternative ‘either (absolutely)
true, or (utterly) false’; its ‘truth’ really rests on its greater
value, as compared with its competitors. Its value, then, is a question
of more or less. The more extensively, conveniently, and economically
a hypothesis works, the more value has it, i.e. the more likely is
it to be called ‘true’, and to be supposed true absolutely: the more
continuously and successfully the test of working has been applied to
a doctrine, the greater the confidence and affection with which it is
regarded, and the greater the presumption that it will continue to
approve itself as true.
But, as we anticipated in § 24 (_s.f._), it is vain to expect to
establish any absolute truth by this method. It provides truth with
ever-growing probability, but never with absolute certainty. For,
however well a theory works, the thought that one may hereafter be
found to work better can never logically be excluded. Even if every
one alive were perfectly satisfied, and no one could imagine any
improvement in an accepted truth--and these conditions are by no
means often realized--such psychological considerations would not
disprove the logical possibility that the best known was not the best
absolutely, and logic would continue to distinguish between a truth
that was absolute, and one liable to one billionth chance of error. The
latter chance could be disregarded for all practical and scientific
purposes, and would not have the slightest psychological effect on
the confidence with which the truth was regarded; but logically it
would still be there. Science, therefore, has to resign itself to the
conclusion that its method cannot conceivably attain to absolute truth,
and to make the best of it.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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