Studies in the History and Method of Science, vol. 1 (of 2)
Religion
Studies in the History and Method of Science, vol. 1 (of 2)
Medicine -- History; Science -- History
(2) He can point out that there is a serious _lacuna_ in the logician’s
plea for his notion of ‘proof’. The logician has assumed that the
only alternative to his belief in absolutely certain premisses is
complete scepticism, arguing that it must be possible to start from
certainty, because otherwise no knowledge would be possible at all.
He then urged ‘but there clearly _is_ knowledge--the sciences attest
it’, and consistently inferred that absolutely certain premisses must
be obtainable. The more or less obvious failure of his attempts to
explain their genesis by ‘self-evidence’, ‘intuition’, ‘necessities of
thought’, &c. (§ 15), could not deter him from clinging to his belief,
because the principles themselves seemed to him to be inevitable and to
admit of no alternative.
In fact, however, there _is_ a _via media_ between scepticism and
absolutism, and science safely pursues it, though logic has overlooked
it. It is _not_ necessary to start with absolutely certain premisses,
because it is possible to adopt premisses hypothetically, to take
them as true for the argument’s sake and for the purposes of the
inquiry, to experiment with them, and to revise them in the light of
the results of such experiments. Thus _their_ value may be judged and
established, _after_ their adoption, by the experimental results,
and they may come to depend logically upon these, and not upon the
processes (analogies, suggestions, guesses, fancies, &c.) which led
to their adoption. If they show themselves capable of advancing the
science and solving its problems, confidence in their ‘truth’ increases
progressively, and their initial assumption is justified. They _cease_
to be ‘hypotheses’ and become ‘facts’, and even ‘principles’ beyond
dispute. If they fail to ‘work’, they may be discarded in favour of
others which are tried in their turn and similarly tested. Hence it
is not true that what is uncertain to begin with must always remain
so, nor is it hard to understand that hypothesis, willingness to
believe, and belief may be the psychological forerunners of logical
proof, which, nevertheless, rests not upon them, but upon the solid
value of the results subsequently reached by their means. The
certainty of scientific premisses then admits of indefinite growth,
which at some point or other will overpower even the most obstinately
sceptical temper. This point naturally lies at a greater distance from
the starting-point for some minds than for others, but when it is
reached, and when the last doubts and scruples have been overcome, the
triumphant truth will _feel_ absolutely certain, and to all intents
and purposes will function as such. But the ‘practical certainty’ thus
achieved will still be distinguishable in thought from the absolute
certainty which logical theory mistakenly demanded. And logicians,
from Plato downwards,[399] will be convicted of having failed to allow
for the possibility that the certainty of premisses and principles may
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