have been available for the purpose if there were not so many objects
surrounding us which are motionless relatively to the earth.[Pg 167] We can
discover the distance of a house by walking to it, but not of a fox by
the distance we have to gallop before reaching him.
Science cannot dispense wholly with postulates, but as it advances
their number decreases. I mean by a postulate something not very
different from a working hypothesis, except that it is more general: it
is something which we assume without sufficient evidence, in the hope
that, by its help, we shall be able to construct a theory which the
facts will confirm. It is by no means essential to science to assume
that its postulates are true always or necessarily; it is enough if
they are often true. They ought to be so used that, when they are true,
they yield verifiable theories, but, when they are not true, no
theory can be framed which will fit the facts—until we find a way of
working with different postulates.
[Pg 168]
The most important postulate of science is induction. This may be
formulated in various ways, but, however formulated, it must yield
the result that a correlation which has been found true in a number
of cases, and has never been found false, has at least a certain
assignable degree of probability of being always true. I propose to
assume the validity of induction, not because I know of any conclusive
grounds in its favour, but because it seems, in some form, essential
to science and not deducible from anything very different from itself.
I do not propose to discuss it, because the problem concerns empirical
knowledge in general, not physics in particular; also because the
subject is so complicated that a discussion is useless unless it is
very lengthy. For the moment I must refer the reader to Mr Keynes and
his critics.[39]
The other postulates which were at one time thought necessary
have gradually been found to be superfluous. At one time, the
indestructibility of matter would have been regarded as a postulate.
Now, though electrons and protons are supposed to persist as a rule,
it is seriously suggested that an electron and a proton may sometimes
combine so as to annihilate each other; Eddington has advanced this
as an important possible source of stellar energy.[40] It is true
that, in this process, energy is supposed to be not destroyed; but the
conservation of energy is no more than an empirical generalization, and
is not thought to be strictly true.
Spatio-temporal continuity was, until lately, a postulate of science,
but the quantum theory has called it in question without intellectual
disaster. It may be true, but we cannot say that it must
be.
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