The actual procedure of science consists of an alternation of
observation, hypothesis, experiment, and theory. The only difference
between a hypothesis and a theory is subjective: the investigator
believes the theory, whereas he only thinks the hypothesis sufficiently
plausible to be worth testing. A hypothesis should accord with all
known relevant observations, and suggest experiments (or observations)
which will have one result if the hypothesis is true, and another
if it is false. This is an ideal: in actual fact, other hypotheses
will always exist which are compatible with what is meant to be an
experimentum crucis. The crucial character can only be as
between two hypotheses, not as between one hypothesis and all the
rest. When a hypothesis has passed a sufficient number of experimental
tests, it becomes a theory. The argument in favour of a theory is
always the formally invalid argument: " implies , and
is true, therefore is true." Here is the theory, and
is the observed relevant facts. We are most impressed when is
very improbable a priori. For example,[42][Pg 195] observation gives
Rydberg's constant as:
while Bohr's theory gives:
which is within the degree of accuracy to be expected if the theory
is right. Numerical confirmations of this kind are always the most
striking. Nevertheless, even they must be received with caution; Bohr's
theory of circular orbits required modification by the admission of
elliptic orbits, and thus turned out to be not the only theory which
would give a correct value of Rydberg's constant.
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