Before examining the evidence upon which Mr. Scudamore predicted such large profits, it will be well to consider briefly the nature of the evidence afforded to Mr. Scudamore by Sir Rowland Hill's epoch-making "invention of penny postage." This is the more necessary, since Mr. Scudamore himself cited the success of penny postage in support of his proposal for a uniform rate of 24 cents for telegraph messages. Upon the introduction of the penny postage, the letters carried by the Post Office of the United Kingdom jumped from 76,000,000 in 1839 to 169,000,000 in 1840, and to 271,000,000 in 1845. But the net revenue obtained by the Post Office Department from the carriage of letters fell from $8,170,000 in 1839 to $2,505,000 in 1840. Though the net revenue increased each year beginning with 1841, not until 1863 did it again reach the point at which it had been in 1839. In 1863, the number of letters carried was 642,000,000--almost four times the number carried in 1840, and eight times the number carried in 1839.[57] In short, the evidence from the penny postage was, that care must be used in arguing from an increase of business to an increase of net revenue; and that the prospect of a great increase in business did not necessarily justify the incurrence of indefinitely large charges on account of interest on capital invested. [Sidenote: _Mr. Scudamore's Revenue Forecasts_] Mr. Scudamore began by assuming that the Post Office would take charge of the telegraphs on July 1, 1869; and that by that time the telegraph companies would have developed a business of 7,500,000 messages a year. On the basis of the traffic of 1866, and under the companies' charges, 55 per cent. of the business would consist of messages carried 100 miles or less, which would be charged 24 cents each; 30 per cent. would be messages carried from 100 to 200 miles, being charged 36 cents each; 10 per cent. would be messages carried beyond 200 miles, which would be charged 48 cents; and, finally, 5 per cent. would consist of messages to and from Ireland, which would be charged from 72 cents to 96 cents. The adoption of the uniform rate of 24 cents, irrespective of distance, would reduce by 33 per cent. the charge on the messages sent from 100 to 200 miles, and would increase those messages by 90 per cent.; it would reduce by 50 per cent. the charge on the messages carried more than 200 miles, and would increase those messages by 90 per cent.; and, finally, it would increase by 150 per cent. the number of messages between Great Britain and Ireland. The introduction of the uniform 24 cent rate, therefore, would increase the total number of messages from 7,500,000 to 10,612,500. That last number would be further increased by 10 per cent. in consequence of the general increase of facilities, and a material reduction in the charges made for the delivery of messages to points outside of the free delivery areas. Thus the total number of