The Century Illustrated Monthly Magazine, September, 1913: Vol. LXXXVI, No. 5Various
General
The Century Illustrated Monthly Magazine, September, 1913: Vol. LXXXVI, No. 5
Various
Periodicals
What were the results of this first group of experiments? Our interest
must evidently be centered on the question of how many judgments were
correct at the first vote before any discussion and any show of hands
were influencing the minds of the men, and how many were correct at
the last vote, after the two periods of discussion and after taking
cognizance of the two preceding votes. If I sum up all the results, the
outcome is that fifty-two per cent. of the first votes were correct,
and seventy-eight per cent. of the final votes were correct. The
discussion of the successive votes had therefore led to an improvement
of twenty-six per cent. of all votes. Or, as the correct votes were at
first fifty-two per cent., their number is increased by one half. May
we not say that this demonstration in exact figures proves that the
confidence in the jury system is justified? And may it not be added
that, in view of the wide-spread prejudices, the result is almost
surprising? Here we had men of high intelligence who were completely
able to take account of every possible aspect of the situation. They
had time to do so, they had training to do so, and every foregoing
experiment ought to have stimulated them to do so in the following
ones. Yet their judgment was right in only fifty-two per cent. of
the cases until they heard the opinions of the others and saw how
they voted. The mere seeing of the vote, however, cannot have been
decisive, because forty-eight per cent.,--that is, virtually half of
the votes,--were at first incorrect. The wrong votes might have had as
much suggestive influence on those who voted rightly as the right votes
on those on the wrong side. Nevertheless, if the change was so strongly
in the right direction, the result must clearly have come from the
discussion.
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