Season Crops in Bales 1896-97 8,714,000 1897-98 11,180,000 1898-99 11,235,000 1899-00 9,439,000 1900-01 10,425,000 1901-02 10,701,000 1902-03 10,758,000 1903-04 10,123,000 1904-05 13,556,000 1905-06 10,697,000 1906-07 13,000,000 Prior to 1897 no crop of over 10,000,000 bales had ever been made; the two bumper crops, 1897-98 and 1898-99 coming together, naturally brought about very low prices, particularly as they occurred in a period of general depression. In the season next following, 1899-1900, there is a marked falling off in production, which is again reflected in a higher average price. But from that time on, we do not find prices and production in such perfect accord. It is generally considered now that 10,500,000 bales is a fair crop. In the four seasons from 1900-01 to 1903-04 inclusive, we raised normal crops, while prices advanced. It would be manifestly unfair to consider the year 1903-04 as reflecting with any degree of accuracy the normal price of cotton, for in that period occurred the disastrous Sully campaign. Making due allowance for this, however, it may be assumed that prices would have advanced if no such deal had occurred. This statement is supported by the fact that the bursting of the bubble did not put prices below 9 cents at any time. Now the most important part of the period is reached, the seasons of 1904-05 and 1905-06. In 1904-05, in the face of an unprecedented crop of 13,600,000 bales, and in spite of the depressing influence of a speculative debauch in the previous year, the average price of cotton was 8¾ cents. Still later, in 1905-06, a crop only a little below normal was raised and sold at an average price of 10.93. Eliminating speculative extremes, and the temporary effects of large or small crops, it appears that the price of cotton is steadily advancing. This is the principal fact for the speculator to consider. No one pretends to dispute the fact that the prices of all staple-food stuffs, metals and other commodities, as well as labor, have advanced materially in the last ten years. Yet the ordinary speculator ignores this broad general principle, and seeks specific causes for the readjustment in cotton prices. And even this research is seldom conducted intelligently. The investigator attempts to explain higher cotton prices by pointing to reduction of acreage, diversification of crops and organizations formed for the purpose of withholding supplies from the market. He disregards the fact that while these influences play some small part in the matter, cotton is also seeking a higher level in common with every commodity that is bought and sold.