The contention is frequently heard that 10,500,000 bales, or even 11,000,000 bales of cotton can no longer be considered an average crop; that the supply should steadily increase in order to keep pace with consumptive demand, and that the crop of 1904-05 was therefore small, and the crop of 1903-04 not so large as it would appear. As this is the most common of the numerous explanations offered as to the recent high prices of cotton, it will be briefly discussed. In order to arrive at a clear view of the ratio of increase in production, a considerable period must be consulted. The statistics of crops from year to year, or even from two or three years, will not do. Let us cover a long period, jumping ten years at a time. Season Crops in Bales 1860-61 3,849,469 1870-71 4,352,317 1880-81 6,605,750 1890-91 8,652,597 1900-01 10,383,432 This exhibit shows that if a sufficiently long period is consulted, a steady increase in production is shown; the average production is also well maintained in the five years from 1901-02 to 1905-06, if the bumper crop of 1904-05 is distributed over the entire period. The contention is all right, but its formulators do not take the pains to ascertain that what they claim _should_ occur, is exactly what _has_ occurred. The gist of the whole matter is this: regardless of all temporary or artificial influences, some powerful force, not related to supply and demand, is shouldering prices steadily upward. To the speculator this fact recognized, analyzed, and properly applied should be of incalculable benefit. If he understands _why_ prices have been advancing, he will be able to determine with facility how long the influence will probably endure. Instead of being misled, or rendered over-cautious by obsolete records of the past, he will be able to calculate from these obsolete records the reasonable expectations of the future. Temporary changes will, of course, be brought about by temporary causes. Fundamental values will still be influenced by supply and demand, but if an independent and submerged force is also at work, due allowance must be made for its operation. That such a force _is_ at work is written large between the lines of compiled statistics; to ignore its existence is an error rank with mischief. The speculator who does not consult this influence may easily make the mistake of selling at low prices because they are high by comparison with prices which obtained a few years ago. On the other hand, a clear understanding of the matter will enable the trader to decide with more or less accuracy what now constitutes a low price for cotton, and what will be the probable price for the future. _Conclusion._ The questions most frequently asked by inexperienced people are as follows: