Here again the question of ruling prices of a certain stock are to be
considered. Low-priced stocks always move in a narrower range than do
higher priced ones. The extent of a probable comparative movement may
be gauged by percentages with a fair degree of accuracy. This method of
measuring a comparative advance or decline, however, will be frequently
disturbed by specific influences bearing on a certain stock or group of
stocks.
It is useless to undertake to establish even a rough rule for ordinary
movements by a system of averages culled from history. We find that in
the course of ten years the rallies and reactions which appeared were
so varied in character both as to the extent in points and the duration
in days, that a barometrical average founded on such investigation
would be empirical. However, the results of this inductive reasoning
will be given for what they are worth.
The principal movements for ten years have been as follows:
_1.--The Bull Market of 1897 to 1899._
This advance began in April, 1897, and terminated in April, 1899--two
years of advancing prices. The average advance in Industrial shares was
38.79 points, or about 100%. Railroads advanced 38.92 points, or about
80%.
The intermediate reactions were as follows:
Extent in Extent in
Industrials Rails Duration
Date of Reaction Points Points Days
Sept. 10 to Nov. 8, ’97 10.17 9.78 59
Jan. 7 to Mar. 25, ’98 8.67 10.43 78
Jun. 10 to Jun. 16, ’98 2.84 2.93 7
Aug. 26 to Oct. 19, ’98 9.41 4.41 54
Jan. 30 to Feb. 7, ’99 3.07 3.38 8
_2.--The Bear Market of 1899-1900._
This decline began May 1st, 1899, and culminated Sept. 24, 1900--17
months. The average gross decline in Industrial shares was 24.32
points, or about 32%, and in Rails, 13.27 points, or about 18%.
Intermediate rallies were as follows:
Extent in Extent in
Industrials Rails Duration
Date of Rally Points Points Days
May 31 to Sep. 5, ’99 10.10 8.17 97
Dec. 18, ’99, to Jan. 2, ’00 9.86 6.38 16
Jan. 11 to Feb. 5, ’00 5.09 4.56 26
Mar. 9 to Apr. 6, ’00 5.04 5.22 29
May 15 to June 1, ’00 2.76 3.42 17
June 23 to July 23, ’00 5.34 4.56 31
July 31 to Aug. 15 2.10 2.31 16
_3.--The Bull Market of 1901._
The advance began Oct. 1, 1900, and culminated Aug. 26, 1901, 11
months. The average advance in Industrial shares was 20.87 points, or
about 39%. The average advance in Rails was 37.92 points, or about 51%.
Intermediate reactions were as follows:
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