ARTHUR LEE. [39] Several of these letters are missing. TO THE COMMITTEE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Paris, November 15th, 1778. Gentlemen, I am informed, that it is determined in the Cabinet of London not to recall their Commissioners this winter. Governor Johnstone has been very graciously received; Lord Howe not. He conducts himself as one that is discontented, and has not been at Court. It is given out, that Johnstone declares he is possessed of impeachable matter against both the Howes. I before mentioned, that the enemy was preparing to send out provisions and clothing for their troops, as if it was intended they should remain in America. It is also certain, that they have contracted for twelve thousand tons of shipping for the beginning of next March. They talk of sending over either ten thousand British, or twelve thousand Russians, for the next campaign, which I am assured and believe they have determined to risk. To sustain this, they affirm very confidently, that a triple alliance offensive and defensive is concluded between Russia, Prussia, and Great Britain. This I believe is at best anticipation. That such an alliance will be the subject of this winter’s negotiation is very probable; perhaps too it may succeed, and that Denmark and Sweden may join. But the good effects of it in favor of our enemy are very problematical. It will inevitably draw forth Spain, which in our part of the question is of much more weight than all the rest. And as to the general war, the league that would be necessarily formed against the other, between the United States, the Empress, France, and Spain, would be the most powerful. I do not count upon Portugal, Naples, Tuscany, and Sardinia, which yet, in all human probability, will join our confederacy. The temper of Holland is such, that the junction of the United Provinces may well be expected, if England has not the wisdom to recede from her claims; and if she does, the Hollanders, having gained the points in trade which they contend for, will render their neutrality perhaps more favorable to us in matters of supply, than an actual confederation. These are the plans, that must employ the negotiation of all Europe during this winter, which will produce either a general pacification or a general war. The latter is what our enemy is endeavoring to effect. In doing this, by the same fated perversion of understanding, which has happily prevailed in all their measures, they are laboring to secure what they wish to subvert, the absolute independency of America. For there never was a political event more manifest and sure, than that a general war must involve in it the independence of the United States, as an inevitable consequence.