The success of the allied arms in America, the recovery of the Dutch Islands, and the avowed superiority of the French in the West Indies, have so changed the face of affairs, that there is strong reason to believe negotiations will be set on foot this winter. Whether Britain is yet sufficiently humbled to desire peace is still doubtful; but whether she is or is not, she will probably negotiate, in which case your presence in Europe will be necessary; so that I believe you cannot at the most flatter yourself with anything more than a conditional leave to return. Your statement of the decline of commerce in the United Provinces, agrees exactly with that which we have received from other hands. I lament that a nation, which has such important reasons for exertion, and such means in their power, should want vigor to call them forth. They must and will, however, sooner or later, be brought to it. A separate peace with England is now impossible, without degrading the character of the nation, and exposing it to greater evils than they are threatened with from England. Besides, what advantages are to be derived from such a peace? Can Britain restore her conquests, now in the hands of the French? Can she give back the plunder of St Eustatia, or the cargoes of the Indiamen divided among the captors? Can she afford them a compensation for the loss of last year's commerce? Or can she draw from her exhausted purse sufficient sums to defend the barrier against the troops of France, who would certainly avenge herself for such ingratitude? The distress of the nation, then, must in the end force them to exertions, and however reluctantly they may go into the war, they must still go into it with vigor. But, Sir, though your letters detail the politics of the country, though they very ably explain the nature and general principles of the government, they leave us in the dark with respect to more important facts. They have not led us into the dock yards or arsenals; they have not told us what ships are prepared for sea, what are preparing, what the naval force will be this spring, or how it is to be applied. You have not yet introduced us to any of the leading members of the great council; you have not repeated your private conversations with them from which infinitely more is to be collected, than from all the pamphlets scattered about the streets of Amsterdam.