The death of the Empress Queen will probably kindle the flame of war in Europe, though perhaps not in the ensuing year. I am told from good authority the Emperor is favorably disposed to England. His Ambassador and Mr Cumberland are very intimate, and see each other every day. The residence here of the latter is extraordinary in the present situation of the two nations, and can only be accounted for on the principles, which I had the honor to mention in former letters. If I may be allowed to conjecture, I think Holland will be sooner or later involved in the war, and that orders have already been given by the Court of England to attack their possessions in the East Indies. This however is but a conjecture, although grounded on some share of political evidence. The British Parliament is prorogued to the 23d of January. Their grand fleet is at sea. Mr Trumbull has been arrested in England, and several Americans obliged to fly and abscond, among whom there is one of my correspondents. I have received advice, that several were included in the number to be arrested, whom it was not the intention of Government to seize, in order to give them an opportunity of returning to America with more eclat, to be in a situation of rendering greater services to Great Britain. I hope this advice is without foundation, but having received it, I think it my duty to communicate it, because circumspection can do us no material injury. M. Gardoqui will scarcely take his departure until all negotiations are at an end, and the campaign shall have commenced. I have the honor to be, &c. WILLIAM CARMICHAEL. _P. S._ Sir Joseph Yorke has presented another Memorial to the States, more insolent than the former. The armed neutrality propose to have forty sail of the line next spring in the ports of Holland. W. C. * * * * * TO ROBERT R. LIVINGSTON. Madrid, February 18th, 1782. Sir, I have just had the pleasure of receiving your letter of the 20th of December, and seize the earliest opportunity of acknowledging the satisfaction I feel in the hope of a more regular correspondence than I have hitherto had with your department. The moment I was informed, indirectly of your appointment, I did myself the honor of addressing you. My first letter was dated the same day you wrote the one above mentioned. On the 24th ultimo, I again solicited your attention, and as I sent quadruplicates of these letters, I think I may venture to refer you to their contents, for accounts of the state of affairs, and the general intelligence at the time of writing them.