Of bias in the interpretation of results all publications are more
or less saturated. A reading of the Chapter on Incubation will
illustrate this. A common error of this kind is the omission of
facts necessary to fully explain results. Items of costs are
invariably omitted or minimized. Food cost alone is usually
mentioned in figuring experimenting station poultry profits, which
statement will undoubtedly cause a sad smile to creep over the face
of many a "has-been" poultryman.
The writer remembers an incident from his college days which
illustrates the point in hand. Let it first be remarked that this
was on the new lands of the trans-Missouri Country, where manure had
no more commercial value than soil, and is freely given to those
who will haul it away.
The professor at the blackboard had been figuring up handsome
profits on a type of dairying towards which he wits very partial.
The figures showed a goodly profit, but the biggest expense
item--that of labor--was omitted. One of the students held up his
hand and inquired after the labor bill.
"Oh," said the smiling professor, "The manure will pay for the
labor."
When the class adjourned, the student remarked: "They say figures
won't lie, but a liar will figure."
The third way in which experiments are made worthless is by the
introduction of factors other than the one being tested. This may be
done by chance, and the conductor not realize the presence of the
other factor, or the varying factors may be introduced intentionally
under the belief that they are negligible. Of the first case an
instance may be cited of the placing of two flocks in a house, one
end of which is damper than the other, the accidental introduction
into one flock of a contagious disease, or one flock being thrown
off feed by an excessive feed of greens, etc., etc. These factors
that influence pens of birds greatly add to the error of the law of
chance. In fact it amounts to the same thing on a larger scale. For
this reason not only are many individuals, but many flocks, many
locations, and many years needed to prove the superiority of the
contrasted methods.
The criticisms in the following section will amply illustrate the
case of foreign factors being unwisely introduced into an
experiment.
The Egg Breeding Work at the Maine Station.
As is well known the Maine Station was for years considered by all
poultrymen to be doing a great and beneficial work in breeding for
increased egg production. Up until the fall of 1907, the poultrymen
of the country were of the opinion that this work was in every way
successful, and a large number of private breeders had taken up the
use of trap-nests in an effort to build up the egg production of
their fowls.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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