The Economic Aspect of GeologyLeith, C. K. (Charles Kenneth)
Science
The Economic Aspect of Geology
Leith, C. K. (Charles Kenneth)
Geology, Economic
The ordinary commercial method of valuing mineral deposits recognizes
the two main elements of value above discussed. This method is sometimes
called the _rational_ or _ad valorem_ method. The profit per ton (or per
other unit) of the product is established, on the basis either of past
performance of the property or of experience with other similar
properties. This profit is multiplied by the total tonnage estimated in
the deposit, the estimate including known reserves, probable reserves,
and in some cases possible and prospective reserves. The product of the
profit per ton and the total tonnage gives the total net amount which
will be received; it does not, however, give the present value, because
the commodity cannot all be taken out and sold at once, but must be
mined and absorbed by the market through a considerable period of years.
The returns receivable some years in the future have obviously a lower
proportionate present worth than amounts to be received at once. The
interest rate comes into play, making it necessary to discount each
annual payment for the number of years which will elapse before it is
received. It is evident, therefore, that an estimate of the _life_ of
the property is necessary, involving not only knowledge of the reserves,
but also a forecast of the annual extraction or _rate of depletion_.
As a simple case of _ad valorem_ valuation for illustrative purposes, a
deposit containing 1,000,000 tons in reserve has an estimated output of
100,000 tons a year for ten years, on which the profit per ton has in
the past averaged $1 and is expected to average $1 in the future. Ten
annual instalments or dividends of $100,000 are to be received. The
present value of the total of these instalments is figured by an annuity
method. It is the value upon which the series of dividends will pay
interest at a predetermined rate, in addition to paying to a sinking
fund annual instalments which, safely invested each year at a low rate
of interest (usually 4%), will repay the present value at the end of the
ten years. In our hypothetical case, if an interest rate of 8% be taken,
the present value of $1,000,000, to be received through ten years in ten
equal instalments, is $612,000. In other words, the sum of $612,000 will
be replaced by the sinking fund at the end of ten years, and will pay 8%
interest during this period,--this requiring total receipts of
$1,000,000 in ten equal annual instalments. If the deposit here cited as
an illustration were to be worked out in three years, thus yielding
three annual instalments of $333,000, its value would be $833,000.
Each of the factors entering into this method of valuation covers a wide
range of variables, any one of which may be difficult to determine.
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