The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
[110] Germany is also liable under the Treaty, as an addition
to her liabilities for Reparation, to pay all the costs of the Armies of
Occupation _after_ Peace is signed for the fifteen subsequent years of
occupation. So far as the text of the Treaty goes, there is nothing to
limit the size of these armies, and France could, therefore, by
quartering the whole of her normal standing army in the occupied area,
shift the charge from her own taxpayers to those of Germany,--though in
reality any such policy would be at the expense not of Germany, who by
hypothesis is already paying for Reparation up to the full limit of her
capacity, but of France's Allies, who would receive so much less in
respect of Reparation. A White Paper (Cmd. 240) has, however, been
issued, in which is published a declaration by the Governments of the
United States, Great Britain, and France engaging themselves to limit
the sum payable annually by Germany to cover the cost of occupation to
$60,000,000 "as soon as the Allied and Associated Powers _concerned_ are
convinced that the conditions of disarmament by Germany are being
satisfactorily fulfilled." The word which I have italicized is a little
significant. The three Powers reserve to themselves the liberty to
modify this arrangement at any time if they agree that it is necessary.
[111] Art. 235. The force of this Article is somewhat
strengthened by Article 251, by virtue of which dispensations may also
be granted for "other payments" as well as for food and raw material.
[112] This is the effect of Para. 12 (_c_) of Annex II. of the
Reparation Chapter, leaving minor complications on one side. The Treaty
fixes the payments in terms of _gold marks_, which are converted in the
above rate of 20 to $5.
[113] If, _per impossibile_, Germany discharged $2,500,000,000
in cash or kind by 1921, her annual payments would be at the rate of
$312,500,000 from 1921 to 1925 and of $750,000,000 thereafter.
[114] Para. 16 of Annex II. of The Reparation Chapter. There is
also an obscure provision by which interest may be charged "on sums
arising out of _material damage_ as from November 11, 1918, up to May 1,
1921." This seems to differentiate damage to property from damage to the
person in favor of the former. It does not affect Pensions and
Allowances, the cost of which is capitalized as at the date of the
coming into force of the Treaty.
[115] On the assumption which no one supports and even the most
optimistic fear to be unplausible, that Germany can pay the full charge
for interest and sinking fund _from the outset_, the annual payment
would amount to $2,400,000,000.
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