The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
amounting to a sum in excess of the total estimated pre-war wealth of
the whole country, are simply irresponsible.[82]
It will help to guide our ideas to quote the official survey of Belgian
wealth, published in 1913 by the Finance Ministry of Belgium, which was
as follows:
Land $1,320,000,000
Buildings 1,175,000,000
Personal wealth 2,725,000,000
Cash 85,000,000
Furniture, etc 600,000,000
--------------
$5,905,000,000
This total yields an average of $780 per inhabitant, which Dr. Stamp,
the highest authority on the subject, is disposed to consider as _prima
facie_ too low (though he does not accept certain much higher estimates
lately current), the corresponding wealth per head (to take Belgium's
immediate neighbors) being $835 for Holland, $1,220 for Germany, and
$1,515 for France.[83] A total of $7,500,000,000, giving an average of
about $1,000 per head, would, however, be fairly liberal. The official
estimate of land and buildings is likely to be more accurate than the
rest. On the other hand, allowance has to be made for the increased
costs of construction.
Having regard to all these considerations, I do not put the money value
of the actual _physical_ loss of Belgian property by destruction and
loot above $750,000,000 _as a maximum_, and while I hesitate to put yet
lower an estimate which differs so widely from those generally current,
I shall be surprised if it proves possible to substantiate claims even
to this amount. Claims in respect of levies, fines, requisitions, and so
forth might possibly amount to a further $500,000,000. If the sums
advanced to Belgium by her allies for the general costs of the war are
to be included, a sum of about $1,250,000,000 has to be added (which
includes the cost of relief), bringing the total to $2,500,000,000.
The destruction in France was on an altogether more significant scale,
not only as regards the length of the battle line, but also on account
of the immensely deeper area of country over which the battle swayed
from time to time. It is a popular delusion to think of Belgium as the
principal victim of the war; it will turn out, I believe, that taking
account of casualties, loss of property and burden of future debt,
Belgium has made the least relative sacrifice of all the belligerents
except the United States. Of the Allies, Serbia's sufferings and loss
have been proportionately the greatest, and after Serbia, France. France
in all essentials was just as much the victim of German ambition as was
Belgium, and France's entry into the war was just as unavoidable.
France, in my judgment, in spite of her policy at the Peace Conference,
a policy largely traceable to her sufferings, has the greatest claims on
our generosity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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