The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
In the year 1913 Germany's imports amounted to $2,690,000,000, and her
exports to $2,525,000,000, exclusive of transit trade and bullion. That
is to say, imports exceeded exports by about $165,000,000. On the
average of the five years ending 1913, however, her imports exceeded her
exports by a substantially larger amount, namely, $370,000,000. It
follows, therefore, that more than the whole of Germany's pre-war
balance for new foreign investment was derived from the interest on her
existing foreign securities, and from the profits of her shipping,
foreign banking, etc. As her foreign properties and her mercantile
marine are now to be taken from her, and as her foreign banking and
other miscellaneous sources of revenue from abroad have been largely
destroyed, it appears that, on the pre-war basis of exports and imports,
Germany, so far from having a surplus wherewith to make a foreign
payment, would be not nearly self-supporting. Her first task, therefore,
must be to effect a readjustment of consumption and production to cover
this deficit. Any further economy she can effect in the use of imported
commodities, and any further stimulation of exports will then be
available for Reparation.
Two-thirds of Germany's import and export trade is enumerated under
separate headings in the following tables. The considerations applying
to the enumerated portions may be assumed to apply more or less to the
remaining one-third, which is composed of commodities of minor
importance individually.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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