Let _b_ be the longitude of a minor planet in the initial epoch, that is
to say, the epoch zero. Let _a_ be its mean motion. Its longitude at the
present epoch, that is to say at the epoch _t_, will be _at_ + _b_. To
say that the present distribution is uniform is to say that the mean
value of the sines and cosines of multiples of _at_ + _b_ is zero. Why
do we assert this?
Let us represent each minor planet by a point in a plane, to wit, by a
point whose coordinates are precisely _a_ and _b_. All these
representative points will be contained in a certain region of the
plane, but as they are very numerous this region will appear dotted with
points. We know nothing else about the distribution of these points.
What do we do when we wish to apply the calculus of probabilities to
such a question? What is the probability that one or more representative
points may be found in a certain portion of the plane? In our ignorance,
we are reduced to making an arbitrary hypothesis. To explain the nature
of this hypothesis, allow me to use, in lieu of a mathematical formula,
a crude but concrete image. Let us suppose that over the surface of our
plane has been spread an imaginary substance, whose density is variable,
but varies continuously. We shall then agree to say that the probable
number of representative points to be found on a portion of the plane is
proportional to the quantity of fictitious matter found there. If we
have then two regions of the plane of the same extent, the probabilities
that a representative point of one of our minor planets is found in one
or the other of these regions will be to one another as the mean
densities of the fictitious matter in the one and the other region.
Here then are two distributions, one real, in which the representative
points are very numerous, very close together, but discrete like the
molecules of matter in the atomic hypothesis; the other remote from
reality, in which our representative points are replaced by continuous
fictitious matter. We know that the latter can not be real, but our
ignorance forces us to adopt it.
If again we had some idea of the real distribution of the representative
points, we could arrange it so that in a region of some extent the
density of this imaginary continuous matter would be nearly proportional
to the number of the representative points, or, if you wish, to the
number of atoms which are contained in that region. Even that is
impossible, and our ignorance is so great that we are forced to choose
arbitrarily the function which defines the density of our imaginary
matter. Only we shall be forced to a hypothesis from which we can hardly
get away, we shall suppose that this function is continuous. That is
sufficient, as we shall see, to enable us to reach a conclusion.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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