The Fruits of Victory: A Sequel to The Great IllusionAngell, Norman
History
The Fruits of Victory: A Sequel to The Great Illusion
Angell, Norman
Economic history -- 1918-1945; World War, 1914-1918 -- Influence
The mainspring of French policy during the last two years has been
fear--fear of the economic revival of Germany which might be the
beginning of a military revival. The measures necessary to check German
economic revival inevitably increase German resentment, which is taken
as proof of the need for increasingly severe measures of repression.
Those measures are tending already to deprive France of her most
powerful military Allies. That fact still further increases the burden
that will be thrown upon her. Such burdens must inevitably make very
large deductions from the 'profits' of her new conquests.
Note in view of these circumstances some further difficulties of turning
those conquests to account. Take the iron mines of Lorraine.[132] France
has now within her borders what is, as already noted, the geographical
centre of Continental industry. How shall she turn that fact to account?
For the iron to become wealth at all, for France to become the actual
centre of European industry, there must be a European industry: the
railroads and factories and steamship lines as consumers of the iron
must once more operate. To do that they in their turn must have _their_
market in the shape of active consumption on the part of the millions of
Europe. In other words the Continent must be economically restored. But
that it cannot be while Germany is economically paralysed. Germany's
industry is the very keystone of the European industry and
agriculture--whether in Russia, Poland, the Balkans, or the Near
East--which is the indispensable market of the French iron.[133] Even if
we could imagine such a thing as a reconstruction of Europe on lines
that would in some wonderful way put seventy or eighty million Germans
into a secondary place--involving as it would vast redistributions of
population--the process obviously would take years or generations.
Meantime Europe goes to pieces. 'Men will not always die quietly' as Mr
Keynes puts it. What is to become of French credit while France is
suppressing Bolshevik upheavals in Poland or Hungary caused by the
starvation of cities through the new economic readjustments? Europe
famishes now for want of credit. But credit implies a certain dependence
upon the steady course of future events, some assurance, for instance,
that this particular railway line to which advances are made will not
find itself, in a year or two's time, deprived of its traffic in the
interest of economic rearrangements resulting from an attempt to re-draw
the economic map of Europe. Nor can such re-drawing disregard the
present. It is no good telling peasants who have not ploughs or reapers
or who cannot get fertilisers because their railroad has no locomotives,
that a new line running on their side of the new frontier will be built
ten or fifteen years hence. You cannot stop the patients breathing 'for
just a few hours' while experiments are made with vital organs. The
operation must adapt itself to the fact that all the time he must
breathe.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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