This represents a very moderate antiquity, and corresponds almost
entirely with the dates of Manetho. But the minimum of M. Arcelin
appears to me to be too low, and the error greater than in the case
of the maximum of M. Forel. I shall only point out the most important
of the causes which have led to this result. The calculations of the
author are based upon the hypothesis of the equality of the floods,
and of the alluvial deposit in the period between the present and the
Roman period, and in times previous to that. He thus confounds the
epochs when the basin of the Saône was left to Nature alone, with
other epochs when the same basin was stripped of its forests, cleared
and cultivated as it is at present. Now everyone knows how much more
powerful the action of atmospheric agents, of rain in particular,
are upon cultivated land than upon uncultivated. The upper layers,
which served as the basis for the calculations of M. Arcelin, have
necessarily diminished to a considerable extent the final result,
since they must have been formed much more rapidly than a great part
of the lower layers.
I shall say, then, of the minimum of M. Arcelin what I have said of
the maximum of M. Forel. It leaves us the certainty that the present
geological period goes back much further than 7-8000 years.
VI. What corrections ought the extreme numbers which I have just
quoted to undergo in order to approximate to the truth? It is still
impossible to say. But the path which should be followed in order to
diminish the space which separates them is henceforth clear. The
alluvium of the Saône has always appeared to me to present conditions
of uncertainty which it would be difficult to overcome, and the best
means of determining the age of the present period by prehistoric
chronology, appears to me to be the Lake of Geneva.
In order to correct the first results obtained by M. Forel, it would
be necessary to take into account all the circumstances pointed out
above, and several others also. It would be especially necessary,
at different seasons of the year, in dry and wet weather, to gauge
the smallest rivulets and ravines all round the lake, to measure the
amount of mud their waters contain, and the amount of gravel and sand
they carry down with it. This task is beyond the power of a single
man; it would require the formation of an _Association_ for this end.
The problem would be worth the trouble, and the Swiss savants, so
justly proud of their beautiful lake, might easily make arrangements
to obtain its solution.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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