Now as the hunters have begun watching hurricane centers close by on the
radar, they see them changing shape and wiggling around. In fact, as
stated in a few cases in earlier chapters, they have seen false eyes and
have been confused by them until the true eye came into view on the
radar scope. If the true eye describes a wiggly path and changes size,
the hunters can draw the wrong conclusions about its direction of motion
unless they wait a while to see if it comes back to the old path. The
hurricane is a little like an eddy or whirl in water running out of the
bottom of a bowl. It is a violent boiling eddy that twists and changes
shape, and in a substance as thin as the atmosphere these motions are
not steady to such a degree that the observer can reach a quick
decision. At any rate, it is now apparent that the observers on ships
and aircraft did not make as many errors as was thought several years
ago.
There is another aspect that must be kept in mind. Radar shows areas
where rain is falling around the center of a hurricane and so the
center, having no rain, stands out as an open space on the radar scope.
This is very good if the storm has rain all around the center, but some
of them have very little rain on the southwest side, and in some cases
there is none to return an echo to the radar. In such a case, there is
only one side to the storm echo and the location of the center is not
revealed. Of course, these facts are known to the experienced radar men,
but they should be known to everybody interested in hurricane reports;
otherwise they are likely to expect too much accuracy from observations
of this kind.
For these and other reasons, the man on the aircraft has a very great
advantage in daylight, for he can see clouds of all kinds, measure the
winds and, by moving through the storm area at the speed of the modern
plane, he can see a large part of it in a short time. To find a
substitute for aircraft reconnaissance is going to be extremely
difficult. But at night the situation is quite different. The airman is
unable to see much without radar, except on a moonlight night and that
is not very good.
One suggestion that has been put forward by a number of different people
in recent years is that a balloon be flown in the calm center and
followed by radar or radio, thus keeping track of the storm’s motion. It
is possible, of course, to fix a small rubber balloon (perhaps eight to
ten feet in diameter) so that it will remain at the same height for a
fairly long time. By one method the rubber balloon is partly filled with
helium and covered loosely with nylon. The balloon expands as it rises,
becoming less dense as the atmosphere gets thinner. It continues to rise
until it fills the nylon cover and cannot expand further. After that,
its density becomes the same as the air at some level previously chosen,
and from there it drifts along without rising or descending.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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