The Idea of Progress: An Inquiry into Its Origin and GrowthBury, J. B. (John Bagnell)
Philosophy
The Idea of Progress: An Inquiry into Its Origin and Growth
Bury, J. B. (John Bagnell)
History -- Philosophy; Progress
In his study of the perfectibility of man and the prospect of a future
reign of general justice and benevolence, Godwin was even more visionary
than Condorcet, as in his political views he was more radical than the
Revolutionists. Condorcet had at least sought to connect his picture of
the future with a reasoned survey of the past, and to find a chain of
connection, but the perfectibility of Godwin hung in the air, supported
only by an abstract theory of the nature of man.
It can hardly be said that he contributed anything to the theoretical
problem of civilisation. His significance is that he proclaimed in
England at an opportune moment, and in a more impressive and startling
way than a sober apostle like Priestley, the creed of progress taught by
French philosophers, though considerably modified by his own anarchical
opinions.
5.
Perfectibility, as expounded by Condorcet and Godwin, encountered
a drastic criticism from Malthus, whose Essay on the Principle of
Population appeared in its first form anonymously in 1798. Condorcet had
foreseen an objection which might be raised as fatal to the realisation
of his future state. Will not the progress of industry and happiness
cause a steady increase in population, and must not the time come when
the number of the inhabitants of the globe will surpass their means of
subsistence? Condorcet did not grapple with this question. He contented
himself with saying that such a period must be very far away, and that
by then "the human race will have achieved improvements of which we can
now scarcely form an idea." Similarly Godwin, in his fancy picture of
the future happiness of mankind, notices the difficulty and shirks it.
"Three-fourths of the habitable globe are now uncultivated. The parts
already cultivated are capable of immeasurable improvement. Myriads of
centuries of still increasing population may pass away and the earth be
still found sufficient for the subsistence of its inhabitants."
Malthus argued that these writers laboured under an illusion as to the
actual relations between population and the means of subsistence. In
present conditions the numbers of the race are only kept from increasing
far beyond the means of subsistence by vice, misery, and the fear of
misery. [Footnote: This observation had been made (as Hazlitt pointed
out) before Malthus by Robert Wallace (see A Dissertation on the Numbers
of Mankind, p. 13, 1753). It was another book of Wallace that suggested
the difficulty to Godwin.] In the conditions imagined by Condorcet and
Godwin these checks are removed, and consequently the population would
increase with great rapidity, doubling itself at least in twenty-five
years. But the products of the earth increase only in an arithmetical
progression, and in fifty years the food supply would be too small for
the demand. Thus the oscillation between numbers and food supply would
recur, and the happiness of the species would come to an end.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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