MY DEAR CHAMBERLAIN,--No, I do not think that he (Mr. Gladstone) is
hedging; from his personal standpoint, he knows that his only chance
of coming in is to get over the Irish, and then to get over his own
party. Waiting games may suit others, but he cannot wait, and
already considers that he has been out for very long. He thought so
a week after Salisbury came in, and at once commenced with the Irish.
This, I should imagine, is his game. On the Address, he will
endeavour to put the Tories in a minority, with or without the Irish.
He then expects to be called upon to form a Government. He will at
once begin to enter privately into terms with the Irish. These terms
will be much the same sort of thing as I wrote in the _Times_, or
non-appearance at all in the Imperial Parliament, after the manner of
Canada. If he cannot make terms, it may be that his desire for
office will lead him to come in, but if he is to be believed, he will
not. What will then be the position? He cannot well dissolve, so
there must inevitably be a Palmerston-Hartington Government, whilst
the Radicals would be split up, some going for the Irish, others
against. This, it seems to me, means the destruction of the Radical
Party for many a year. Mr. Gladstone knows that he is too big an
individuality to be the head of a Coalition Government, moreover he
has burnt his ships.
Suppose, on the other hand, the Conservatives dissolve at once, after
Mr. Gladstone has pronounced in favour of Home {305} Rule. On what
cry should we go to the country, if not on Home Rule? Evidently
those opposed to it would give the preference to the Conservatives,
for they one and all would have put their foot down, whilst we should
be tainted with the unholy thing, even if we had made a Jonah of Mr.
Gladstone. So long as the Irish question is not settled, the Tories
must have the pull in the country, and the Radicals must remain
discredited and disunited.
This being so, is it not worth while to take the other course? It is
by no means certain that we should be beaten at an election. Mr.
Gladstone is still a power. The Irish have votes which would turn
several places. The electors may be divided into people who think
about the question of Ireland, and those who don't. For the latter a
"cow" might be invented, whilst many of the former would say that as
one English party has gone for Home Rule, it must come, and if so as
speedily as possible.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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