15. But apart from the above considerations, this way of putting the case does not seem to me at all conclusive. Take the following example. A man[4] finds himself on the sands of the Wash or Morecambe Bay, in a dense mist, when the spring-tide is coming in; and knows therefore that to be once caught by the tide would be fatal. He hears a church-bell at a distance, but has no means of knowing whether it is on the same side of the water with himself or on the opposite side. He cannot tell therefore whether by following its sound he will be led out into the mid-stream and be lost, or led back to dry land and safety. Here there can be no repetition of the event, and the cases are indistinguishably alike, to him, in the only circumstances which can affect the issue: is not then his prospect of death, it will be said, necessarily equal to one-half? A proper analysis of his state of mind would be a psychological rather than a logical enquiry, and in any case, as above remarked, the decision of this question does not touch our logical position. But according to the best introspection I can give I should say that what really passes through the mind in such a case is something of this kind: In most doubtful positions and circumstances we are accustomed to decide our conduct by a consideration of the relative advantages and disadvantages of each side, that is by the observed or inferred frequency with which one or the other alternative has succeeded. In proportion as these become more nearly balanced, we are more frequently mistaken in the individual cases; that is, it becomes more and more nearly what would be called 'a mere toss up' whether we are right or wrong. The case in question seems merely the limiting case, in which it has been contrived that there shall be no appreciable difference between the alternatives, by which to decide in favour of one or other, and we accordingly feel no confidence in the particular result. Having to decide, however, we decide according to the precedent of similar cases which have occurred before. To stand still and wait for better information is certain death, and we therefore appeal to and employ the only rule we know of; or rather we feel, or endeavour to feel, as we have felt before when acting in the presence of alternatives as nearly balanced as possible. But I can neither perceive in my own case, nor feel convinced in that of others, that this appeal, in a case which cannot be repeated,[5] to a rule acted on and justified in cases which can be and are repeated, at all forces us to admit that our state of mind is the same in each case.