The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Still the question is one which is so naturally raised in
connection with this subject, that it cannot be altogether
passed by. I think that to a considerable extent such a
justification as that mentioned above will be found applicable
in other cases. The fact is that we are very seldom called
upon to decide and act upon a single contingency which cannot
be viewed as being one of a series. Experience introduces
us, it must be remembered, not merely to a succession
of events neatly arranged in a single series (as we have
hitherto assumed them to be for the purpose of illustration),
but to an infinite number belonging to a vast variety of
different series. A man is obliged to be acting, and therefore
exercising his belief about one thing or another, almost
the whole of every day of his life. Any one person will have
to decide in his time about a multitude of events, each one
of which may never recur again within his own experience.
But by the very fact of there being a multitude, though they
are all of different kinds, we shall still find that order is
maintained, and so a course of conduct can be justified. In
a plantation of trees we should find that there is order of a
certain kind if we measure them in any one direction, the
trees being on an average about the same distance from each
other. But a somewhat similar order would be found if we
were to examine them in any other direction whatsoever. So
in nature generally; there is regularity in a succession of
events of the same kind. But there may also be regularity
if we form a series by taking successively a number out of
totally distinct kinds.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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