The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
A slightly different way of expressing this distinction is
to regard these 'mere coincidences' as being simply cases in
point of _independent_ events, in the sense in which independence
was described in a former chapter. We saw
that any two events, A and B, were so described when each
happens with precisely the same relative statistical frequency
whether the other happens or not. This state of things
seems to hold good of the successions of heads and tails in
tossing coins, as in that of male and female births in a
town, or that of the digits in many mathematical tables.
Thus we suppose that when men are picked up in the street
and taken into a house to die, there will not be in the long
run any preferential selection for or against the house in
which they were born. And all that we necessarily mean to
claim when we deny of such an occurrence, in any particular
case, that it is a mere coincidence, is that that particular
case must be taken out of the common list and transferred
to one in which there _is_ some such preferential selection.
11. III. The next problem is a somewhat more intricate
one, and will therefore require rather careful subdivision.
It involves the antithesis between Chance and
Design. That is, we are not now (as in the preceding case)
considering objects in their physical aspect alone, and taking
account only of the relative frequency of their co-existence or
sequence; but we are considering the agency by which they
are produced, and we are enquiring whether that agency
trusted to what we call chance, or whether it employed what
we call design.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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