The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
23. (II.) The second question is this, Does the distribution
of the stars, after allowing for the case of the binary
stars just mentioned, resemble that which would be produced
by human agency sprinkling things 'at random'?
(We are speaking, of course, of their distribution as it appears
to us, on the visible heavens, for this is nearly all that
we can observe; but if they extend beyond the telescopic
range in every direction, this would lead to practically much
the same discussion as if we considered their actual arrangement
in space.) We have fully discussed, in a former chapter,
the meaning of 'randomness.' Applying it to the case
before us, the question becomes this, Is the distribution
tolerably uniform on the whole, but with innumerable individual
deflections? That is, when we compare large areas,
are the ratios of the number of stars in each equal area
approximately equal, whilst, as we compare smaller and
smaller areas, do the relative numbers become more and
more irregular? With certain exceptions, such as that of
the Milky Way and other nebular clusters, this seems to be
pretty much the case, at any rate as regards the bulk of the
stars.[12]
All further questions: the decision, for instance, for or
against any form of the Nebular Hypothesis: or, admitting
this, the decision whether such and such parts of the visible
heavens have sprung from the same nebula, must be left to
Astronomy to adjudicate.
NOTE ON THE PROPORTIONS OF THE SEXES.
The following remarks were rather too long for convenient insertion on
p. 259, and are therefore appended here.
The 'random' character of male and female births has generally been
rested almost entirely on statistics of place and time. But what is
more wanted, surely, is the proportion displayed when we compare a
number of _families_. This seems so obvious that I cannot but suppose
that the investigation must have been already made somewhere, though I
have not found any trace of it in the most likely quarters. Thus
Prof. Lexis (_Massenerscheinungen_) when supporting his view that the
proportion between the sexes at birth is almost the only instance
known to him, in natural phenomena, of true normal dispersion about a
mean, rests his conclusions on the ordinary statistics of the
registers of different countries.
It certainly needs proof that the same characteristics will hold good
when the family is taken as the unit, especially as some theories (e.g. that
of Sadler) would imply that 'runs' of boys or girls would be proportionally
commoner than pure chance would assign. Lexis has shown that this is
most markedly the case with _twins_: i.e., to use an obviously intelligible
notation, (M for male, F for female), that M.M. and F.F. are very much
commoner in proportion than M.F.
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