The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
17. It is true that in the case of a man's prospect of
death we should each qualify our judgment by what we
knew or reasonably supposed as to his health, habits, profession,
and so on, and should thus arrive at varying estimates.
But no one could _justify_ his own estimate without
appealing explicitly or implicitly to the statistical grounds on
which he had relied, and if these were not previously available
to other persons, he must now set them before their
notice. In other words, the judgments we entertain, here as
elsewhere, are only relative so long as we rest them on
grounds peculiar to ourselves. The process of justification,
which I consider to be essential to logic, has a tendency to
correct such individualities of judgment, and to set all observers
on the same basis as regards their data.
It is better therefore to regard the conclusions of Probability
as being absolute and objective, in the same sense as,
though doubtless in a far less degree than, they are in Induction.
Fully admitting that our conclusions will in many
cases vary exceedingly from time to time by fresh accessions
of knowledge, it is preferable to regard such fluctuations of
assent as partaking of the nature of precipitate judgments,
founded on special statistics, instead of depending only on
those which are common to all observers. In calling such
judgments precipitate it is not implied that there is any
blame in entertaining them, but simply that, for one reason
or another, we have been induced to form them without
waiting for the possession of the full amount of evidence,
statistical or otherwise, which might ultimately be looked
for. This explanation will suit the facts equally well, and is
more consistent with the general philosophical position maintained
in this work.
1. "Is it not self-evident that internal improbabilities of all kinds
weaken external proof? Doubtless, but to what practical purpose can
this be alleged here, when it has been proved before, that real
internal improbabilities, which rise even to moral certainty, are
overcome by the most ordinary testimony." Part II. ch. III.
2. "Miracles must not be compared to common natural events; or to
events which, though uncommon, are similar to what we daily
experience; but to the extraordinary phenomena of nature. And then
the comparison will be between the presumption against miracles, and
the presumption against such uncommon appearances, suppose as
comets,".... Part II. ch. II.
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