The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
14. Even after this philosophy began to pass away,
the divisions of modality originally founded upon it might
have proved, as De Morgan has remarked,[10] of considerable
service in mediæval times. As he says, people were much
more frequently required to decide in one way or the other
upon a single testimony, without there being a sufficiency of
specific knowledge to test the statements made. The old
logician "did not know but that any day of the week might
bring from Cathay or Tartary an account of men who ran on
four wheels of flesh and blood, or grew planted in the ground,
like Polydorus in the Æneid, as well evidenced as a great
many nearly as marvellous stories." Hence, in default of
better inductions, it might have been convenient to make
rough classifications of the facts which were and which were
not to be accepted on testimony (the necessary, the impossible, &c.),
and to employ these provisional inductions (which
is all we should now regard them) as testing the stories
which reached him. Propositions belonging to the class of
the impossible might be regarded as having an antecedent
presumption against them so great as to prevail over almost
any testimony worth taking account of, and so on.
15. But this old four-fold division of modals continued
to be accepted and perpetuated by the logicians long
after all philosophical justification for it had passed away.
So far as I have been able to ascertain, scarcely any logician
of repute or popularity before Kant, was bold enough to
make any important change in the way of regarding them.[11]
Even the Port-Royal Logic, founded as it is on Cartesianism,
repeats the traditional statements, though with extreme
brevity. This adherence to the old forms led, it need not be
remarked, to considerable inconsistency and confusion in
many cases. These forms were founded, as we have seen, on
an objective view of the province of logic, and this view was
by no means rigidly carried out in many cases. In fact it
was beginning to be abandoned, to an extent and in directions
which we have not opportunity here to discuss, before
the influence of Kant was felt. Many, for instance, added to
the list of the four, by including the true and the false;
occasionally also the probable, the supposed, and the certain
were added. This seems to show some tendency towards
abandoning the objective for the subjective view, or at least
indicates a hesitation between them.
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