Each of the above three meanings is a possible and a legitimate meaning. The only requisite is that we should be careful to ascertain which of them is present to the mind, so as to select the appropriate statistics. The first makes in itself the most legitimate use of Probability; the drawback being that at the time in question the functions of Probability are superseded by the event being otherwise known. The second or third, therefore, is the more likely meaning to be present to the mind, for in these cases Probability, if it could be practically made use of, would, at the time in question, be a means of drawing really important inferences. The drawbacks are the difficulty of finding such statistics, and the extreme disturbing influence upon these statistics of the circumstances of the special case. 8. (II.) Closely connected with the tendency just mentioned is that which prompts us to confound a true chance selection with one which is more or less picked. When we are dealing with familiar objects in a concrete way, especially when the greater rarity corresponds to superiority of quality, almost every one has learnt to recognize the distinction. No one, for instance, on observing a fine body of troops in a foreign town, but would be prompted to ask whether they came from an average regiment or from one that was picked. When however the distinction refers to unfamiliar objects, and especially when only comparative rarity seems to be involved, the fallacy may assume a rather subtle and misleading form, and seems to deserve special notice by the consideration of a few examples.