twelfth; but the circumstances are quite different in the instance proposed. 11. In the above example the error is transparent. But in forming a judgment upon matters of greater complexity than dice and pence, especially in the case of what are called 'narrow escapes,' a mistake of an analogous kind is, I apprehend, far from uncommon. A person, for example, who has just experienced a narrow escape will often be filled with surprise and anxiety amounting almost to terror. The event being past, these feelings are, at the time, in strictness inappropriate. If, as is quite possible, they are merely instinctive, or the result of association, they do not fall within the province of any kind of Logic. If, however, as seems more likely, they partially arise from a supposed transference of ourselves into that point of past time at which the event was just about to happen, and the production by imagination of the feelings we should then expect to experience, this process partakes of the nature of an inference, and can be right or wrong. In other words, the alarm may be proportionate or disproportionate to the amount of danger that might fairly have been reckoned upon in such a hypothetical anticipation. If the supposed transfer were completely carried out, there would be no fallacy; but it is often very incompletely done, some of the component parts of the event being supposed to be determined or 'arranged' (to use a sporting phrase) in the form in which we now know that they actually have happened, and only the remaining ones being fairly contemplated as future chances.