The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
To suggest to any individual or company that they
should consent to go on playing upon such terms as these
would be too barefaced a proposal. And yet the case in
question is identical in principle, and almost identical in
form, with this. To offer to give a man any sum he likes to
name provided he gives you back again that same sum _plus_
one, and to offer him any number of terms he pleases of the
series 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, &c., provided you have the next term of
the set, are equivalent. The only difference is that in the
latter case the result is attained with somewhat more of
arithmetical parade. Similarly equivalent are the processes
in case we prefer to leave it to chance, instead of to choice,
to decide what sum or what number of terms shall be fixed
upon. This latter is what is really done in the case in
question. A man who consents to go on doubling his stake
every time he wins, is leaving nothing else to chance than
the determination of the particular number of terms of such
a geometrical series which shall be allowed to pass before he
stops.
15. It may be added that there is no special virtue in
the particular series in question, viz. that in accordance with
which the stake is doubled each time. All that is needed is
that the last term of the series should more than balance all
the preceding ones. Any other series which increased faster
than this geometrical one, would answer the purpose as well
or better. Nor is it necessary, again, that the game should
be an even or 'fair' one. Chance, be it remembered, affects
nothing here but the number of terms to which the series
attains on each occasion, its final result being always arithmetically
fixed. When a penny is tossed up it is only on
one of every two occasions that the series runs to more than
two terms, and so his fixed gains come in pretty regularly.
But unless he was playing for a limited time only, it would
not affect him if the series ran to two hundred terms; it
would merely take him somewhat longer to win his stakes.
A man might safely, for instance, continue to lay an _even_
bet that he would get the single prize in a lottery of a thousand
tickets, provided he thus doubled, or more than doubled,
his stake each time, and unlimited credit was given.
16. So regarded, the problem is simple enough, but
there are two points in it to which attention may conveniently
be directed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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