The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
18. On this point the reports of the Anthropometrical
Committee, already referred to, are most instructive. They
illustrate the extent to which this subdivision could be
carried out, and prove,--if any proof were necessary,--that
the discovery of Quetelet's _homme moyen_ would lead us a
long chase. So far as their results go the mean 'English'
stature (in inches) is 67.66. But this is composed of Scotch,
Irish, English and Welsh constituents, the separate means of
these being, respectively; 68.71, 67.90, 67.36, and 66.66.
But these again may be subdivided; for careful observation
shows that the mean English stature is distinctly greater in
certain districts (e.g. the North-Eastern counties) than in
others. Then again the mean of the professional classes is
considerably greater than that of the labourers; and that of
the honest and intelligent is very much greater than that of
the criminal and lunatic constituents of the population.
And, so far as the observations are extensive enough for the
purpose, it appears that every characteristic in respect of the
grouping about a mean which can be detected in the more
extensive of these classes can be detected also in the narrower.
Nor is there any reason to suppose that the same
process of subdivision could not be carried out as much
farther as we chose to prolong it.
19. It need hardly be added to the above remarks
that no one who gives the slightest adhesion to the Doctrine
of Evolution could regard the type, in the above qualified
sense of the term, as possessing any real permanence and
fixity. If the constant causes, whatever they may be, remain
unchanged, and if the variable ones continue in the
long run to balance one another, the results will continue to
cluster about the same mean. But if the constant ones
undergo a gradual change, or if the variable ones, instead of
balancing each other suffer one or more of their number to
begin to acquire a preponderating influence, so as to put a
sort of bias upon their aggregate effect, the mean will at
once begin, so to say, to shift its ground. And having once
begun to shift, it may continue to do so, to whatever extent
we recognize that Species are variable and Development is a
fact. It is as if the point on the target at which we aim, instead
of being fixed, were slowly changing its position as we
continue to fire at it; changing almost certainly to some extent
and temporarily, and not improbably to a considerable
extent and permanently.
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