The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
21. Perhaps one of the best illustrations of the legitimate
application of such principles is to be found in Mr
Galton's work on _Hereditary Genius_. Indeed the full force
and purport of some of his reasonings there can hardly be
appreciated except by those who are familiar with the conceptions
which we have been discussing in this chapter. We
can only afford space to notice one or two points, but the
student will find in the perusal, of at any rate the more
argumentive parts, of that volume[18] an interesting illustration
of the doctrines now under discussion. For one thing it
may be safely asserted, that no one unfamiliar with the Law
of Error would ever in the least appreciate the excessive
rapidity with which the superior degrees of excellence tend
to become scarce. Every one, of course, can see at once, in
a numerical way at least, what is involved in being 'one of a
million'; but they would not at all understand, how very
little extra superiority is to be looked for in the man who is
'one of two million'. They would confound the mere numerical
distinction, which seems in some way to imply
double excellence, with the intrinsic superiority, which
would mostly be represented by a very small fractional advantage.
To be 'one of ten million' sounds very grand, but
if the qualities under consideration could be estimated in
themselves without the knowledge of the vastly wider area
from which the selection had been made, and in freedom
therefore from any consequent numerical bias, people would
be surprised to find what a very slight comparative superiority
was, as a rule, thus obtained.
22. The point just mentioned is an important one in
arguments from statistics. If, for instance, we find a small
group of persons, connected together by blood-relationship,
and all possessing some mental characteristic in marked
superiority, much depends upon the comparative rarity of
such excellence when we are endeavouring to decide whether
or not the common possession of these qualities was accidental.
Such a decision can never be more than a rough
one, but if it is to be made at all this consideration must
enter as a factor. Again, when we are comparing one nation
with another,[19] say the Athenian with any modern European
people, does the popular mind at all appreciate what sort of
evidence of general superiority is implied by the production,
out of one nation, of such a group as can be composed of
Socrates, Plato, and a few of their contemporaries? In this
latter case we are also, it should be remarked, employing the
'Law of Error' in a second way; for we are assuming that
where the extremes are great so will also the means be, in
other words we are assuming that every amount of departure
from the mean occurs with a (roughly) calculable degree
of relative frequency. However generally this truth may
be accepted in a vague way, its evidence can only be appreciated
by those who know the reasons which can be given
in its favour.
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