The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
A rough graphic representation of the curve is given above. For the
benefit of those unfamiliar with mathematics one or two brief
remarks may be here appended concerning some of its properties.
(1) It must not be supposed that all specimens of the curve are
similar to one another. The dotted lines are equally specimens of
it. In fact, by varying the essentially arbitrary units in which x
and y are respectively estimated, we may make the portion towards
the vertex of the curve as obtuse or as acute as we please. This
consideration is of importance; for it reminds us that, by varying
one of these arbitrary units, we could get an 'exponential curve'
which should tolerably closely resemble any symmetrical curve of
error, provided that this latter recognized and was founded upon the
assumption that extreme divergences were excessively rare. Hence it
would be difficult, by mere observation, to prove that the law of
error in any given case was not exponential; unless the statistics
were very extensive, or the actual results departed considerably
from the exponential form. (2) It is quite impossible by any graphic
representation to give an adequate idea of the excessive rapidity
with which the curve after a time approaches the axis of x. At the
point R, on our scale, the curve would approach within the
fifteen-thousandth part of an inch from the axis of x, a distance
which only a very good microscope could detect. Whereas in the
hyperbola, e.g. the rate of approach of the curve to its asymptote
is continually decreasing, it is here just the reverse; this rate is
continually increasing. Hence the two, viz. the curve and the axis
of x, appear to the eye, after a very short time, to merge into one
another.
6. As by Quetelet: noted, amongst others, by Herschel, _Essays_, page
409.
7. _Proc. R. Soc._ Oct. 21, 1879.
8. We are here considering, remember, the case of a _finite_ amount of
statistics; so that there are actual limits at each end.
9. It must be admitted that experience has not yet (I believe) shown
this asymmetry in respect of heights.
10. The above reasoning will probably be accepted as valid at this
stage of enquiry. But in strictness, assumptions are made here,
which however justifiable they may be in themselves, involve
somewhat of an anticipation. They demand, and in a future chapter
will receive, closer scrutiny and criticism.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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