The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
11. A definite numerical example of this kind of concentration of
frequency about the mean was given in the note to §4. It was of a
binomial form, consisting of the successive terms of the expansion
of (1 + 1)^{m}. Now it may be shown (Quetelet, _Letters_, p. 263;
Liagre, _Calcul des Probabilités_, §34) that the expansion of such
a binomial, as m becomes indefinitely great, approaches as its limit
the exponential form; that is, if we take a number of equidistant
ordinates proportional respectively to 1, m, m(m - 1)/(1·2) &c., and
connect their vertices, the figure we obtain approximately
represents some form of the curve y = Ae^{-hx^{2}}, and tends to
become identical with it, as m is increased without limit. In other
words, if we suppose the errors to be produced by a limited number
of finite, equal and independent causes, we have an approximation to
the exponential Law of Error, which merges into identity as the
causes are increased in number and diminished in magnitude without
limit. Jevons has given (_Principles of Science_, p. 381) a diagram
drawn to scale, to show how rapid this approximation is. One point
must be carefully remembered here, as it is frequently overlooked
(by Quetelet, for instance). The coefficients of a binomial of two
equal terms--as (1 + 1)^{m}, in the preceding paragraph--are
symmetrical in their arrangement from the first, and very speedily
become indistinguishable in (graphical) outline from the final
exponential form. But if, on the other hand, we were to consider the
successive terms of such a binomial as (1 + 4)^{m} (which are
proportional to the relative chances of 0, 1, 2, 3, ... failures in
m ventures, of an event which has one chance in its favour to four
against it) we should have an unsymmetrical succession. If however
we suppose m to increase without limit, as in the former
supposition, the unsymmetry gradually disappears and we tend towards
precisely the same exponential form as if we had begun with two
equal terms. The only difference is that the position of the vertex
of the curve is no longer in the centre: in other words, the
likeliest term or event is not an equal number of successes and
failures but successes and failures in the ratio of 1 to 4.
12. 'Law of Error' is the usual technical term for what has been
elsewhere spoken of above as a Law of Divergence from a mean. It is
in strictness only appropriate in the case of one, namely the third,
of the three classes of phenomena mentioned in §4, but by a
convenient generalization it is equally applied to the other two; so
that we term the amount of the divergence from the mean an 'error'
in every case, however it may have been brought about.
13. This however seems to be the purport, either by direct assertion
or by implication, of two elaborate works by Quetelet, viz. his
_Physique Sociale_ and his _Anthropométrie_.
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