The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
We shall find it convenient to begin with a division
which, though not pretending to any philosophical accuracy,
will serve as a preliminary guide. It is the simple division
into objects, and the agencies which affect them. All the
phenomena with which Probability is concerned (as indeed
most of those with which science of any kind is concerned)
are the product of certain objects natural and artificial,
acting under the influence of certain agencies natural and
artificial. In the tossing of a penny, for instance, the objects
would be the penny or pence which were successively
thrown; the agencies would be the act of throwing, and
everything which combined directly or indirectly with this
to make any particular face come uppermost. This is a
simple and intelligible division, and can easily be so extended
in meaning as to embrace every class of objects with
which we are concerned.
Now if, in any two or more cases, we had the same
object, or objects indistinguishably alike, and if they were
exposed to the influence of agencies in all respects precisely
alike, we should expect the results to be precisely similar.
By one of the applications of the familiar principle of the
uniformity of nature we should be confident that exact
likeness in the antecedents would be followed by exact
likeness in the consequents. If the same penny, or similar
pence, were thrown in exactly the same way, we should
invariably find that the same face falls uppermost.
2. What we actually find is, of course, very far removed
from this. In the case of the objects, when they
are artificial constructions, e.g. dice, pence, cards, it is true
that they are purposely made as nearly as possible indistinguishably
alike. We either use the same thing over and
over again or different ones made according to precisely
the same model. But in natural objects nothing of the
sort prevails. In fact when we come to examine them, we
find reproduced in them precisely the same characteristics
as those which present themselves in the final result which
we were asked to explain, so that unless we examine them
a stage further back, as we shall have to do to some extent
at any rate, we seem to be merely postulating again the
very peculiarity of the phenomena which we were undertaking
to explain. They will be found, for instance, to
consist of large classes of objects, throughout all the individual
members of which a general resemblance extends.
Suppose that we were considering the length of life. The
objects here are the human beings, or that selected class
of them, whose lives we are considering. The resemblance
existing among them is to be found in the strength and
soundness of their principal vital organs, together with all
the circumstances which collectively make up what we call
the goodness of their constitutions. It is true that most of
these circumstances do not admit of any approach to actual
measurement; but, as was pointed out in the last chapter,
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