The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
14. He scarcely, however, professes to give these as an accurate
measure of the mean height, nor does he always give precisely the
same measure. Practically, none but soldiers being measured in any
great numbers, the English stature did not afford accurate data on
any large scale. The statistics given a few pages further on are
probably far more trustworthy.
15. This statement will receive some explanation and correction in the
next chapter.
16. I am not speaking here of the now familiar results of
Psychophysics, which are mainly occupied with the measurement of
perceptions and other simple states of consciousness.
17. Perhaps the best brief account of Mr Galton's method is to be
found in a paper in _Mind_ (July, 1880) on the statistics of Mental
Imagery. The subject under comparison here--viz. the relative
power, possessed by different persons, of raising clear visual
images of objects no longer present to us--is one which it seems
impossible to 'measure', in the ordinary sense of the term. But by
arranging all the answers in the order in which the faculty in
question seems to be possessed we can, with some approach to
accuracy, select the middlemost person in the row and use him as a
basis of comparison with the corresponding person in any other
batch. And similarly with those who occupy other relative positions
than that of the middlemost.
18. I refer to the introductory and concluding chapters: the bulk of
the book is, from the nature of the case, mainly occupied with
statistical and biographical details.
19. See Galton's _Hereditary Genius_, pp. 336-350, "On the comparative
worth of different races."
CHAPTER III.
_ON THE CAUSAL PROCESS BY WHICH THE GROUPS OR SERIES OF PROBABILITY ARE
BROUGHT ABOUT._
1. In discussing the question whether all the various
groups and series with which Probability is concerned are of
precisely one and the same type, we made some examination
of the process by which they are naturally produced, but we
must now enter a little more into the details of this process.
All events are the results of numerous and complicated
antecedents, far too numerous and complicated
in fact for it to be possible for us to determine or take
them all into account. Now, though it is strictly true that
we can never determine them all, there is a broad distinction
between the case of Induction, in which we can
make out enough of them, and with sufficient accuracy, to
satisfy a reasonable certainty, and Probability, in which we
cannot do so. To Induction we shall return in a future
chapter, and therefore no more need be said about it here.
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